We will study changing risks of catastrophic floods in populated areas. Floods result from the interaction between meteorological processes and landscape characteristics, both of which are changing due to human activity. We will examine how climate change and urbanization combine to influence flood risk now, and into the future. This project has three interdependent components. First, we will develop statistical models that can describe the frequency, severity, and spatial extent of the most extreme precipitation events. Second, we will identify large-scale atmospheric conditions that provide predictive skill in our statistical model of extreme precipitation, and use those patterns as projected by climate model runs to characterize future extreme precipitation events. Finally, we will couple the results of the statistical analysis of current and projected extreme precipitation to a hydrological model that will simulate flooding based on precipitation and current and potential land use characteristics.
Researchers
Bejamin Shaby
