What Limits the Predictability of Weather?

Hussey Lecture in Meteorology presents George Craig, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat.

Lorenz showed in the 1960's that the predictability of complex nonlinear systems like the atmosphere is fundamentally limited. Nevertheless, weather forecasts have been improving steadily for many decades. Are we in danger of reaching the fundamental limit? How will we recognize it when we do? This talk will feature new results from Waves to Weather, a large research program dedicated to understanding the limits of predictability. Using a combination of theory and numerical simulation, I will review the state of the art regarding how errors grow in the atmosphere - the "real" butterfly effect - and estimate how much room for improvement still remains.