Simulation of regional post-earthquake recovery for performance-based engineering and resilience

State-of-the-art performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) procedures, such as FEMA P-58, generally treat buildings as “islands” with respect to modeling regional impacts and post-earthquake recovery. This talk presents an overview of recent research to advance direct simulation of regional impacts and recovery within a PBEE framework. Specifically, Dr. Baker will demonstrate work to scale single-building performance-based assessments to a regional scale. Also presented are refinements to include the impact of damaged roads and neighboring buildings on repair and recovery timelines. Finally, Dr. Baker will illustrate a coupled assessment of economic and physical impacts in order to account for private-sector decision-making and regional industrial capacity constraints on recovery. Collectively, these developments move us closer to regional-scale performance assessments that can incorporate a broader range of factors in forecasts and thus can support a broader range of decision-making to increase community resilience.