Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Modelling

This talk will detail the methodology used to generate a physics based country-wide probabilistic flood and hurricane risk model comprised of 50,000 years of statistically simulated precipitation and hurricane events.  This model is appropriate for use in establishing material risk at high resolution in the continental US (10m x 10m resolution), a model which is in use by the insurance industry and by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).  In addition to providing general comments on the methodology, we will also discuss how climate change effects losses and model verification statistics.  Finally, we will have a brief discussion on potential applicability as pertains future climate legislation and regulation.