Meteo Colloquium: Subseasonal Temperature Prediction using Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns

Abstract:
One statistical model guidance for Week 3–4 Outlooks of the U.S. is a composite-based “phase” model, which employs lagged relationship between predictors and predictand. ENSO and MJO are often referred as an important potential source of subseasonal predictability, but this may not be true for some regions of the globe. In this talk, we will first go over how the model can be constructed using the northern hemisphere atmospheric teleconnection patterns and how much skills can be obtained from each pattern. Next, we will explore how the phase model can be improved by being bridged with dynamical forecasts for weeks 1–4. It will be demonstrated this hybrid model generally outperforms the conventional statistical model for lead times of weeks 2–6.