Research Summary
Population ecology and population dynamics with particular emphasis on mathematical and computational aspects; disease ecology and biology; outbreak and persistence of infectious disease.
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Research Keywords
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Recent Publications
Epidemic evolutionarily stable strategies within an age-structured host population
Eilersen, A., Bjørnstad, O. N., Li, R., Schreiber, S. J., Pei, Z. & Stenseth, N. C., Mar 25 2025, In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 122, 12, e2418170122.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Reducing the threats of rodent-borne zoonoses requires an understanding and leveraging of three key pillars: disease ecology, synanthropy, and rodentation
Friant, S., Mistrick, J., Luis, A. D., Harden, C., Simons, D., Fichet-Calvet, E., Gibb, R., Grube, N., Henttonen, H., Imirizian, N., Moses, L., Perry, G. H., Redding, D., Stenseth, N. C., Vandegrift, K., Bjornstad, O. N., Dobson, A., Lloyd-Smith, J. O. & Hudson, P. J., 2025, (Accepted/In press) In: The Lancet Planetary Health. 101300.Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review
Decades of historical outbreak cycles in a multivoltine insect reveal a plastic phenological response to climate change
Smith, R. A., Nelson, W. A., Yamanaka, T., Sato, Y., Kamimuro, T., Omata, R. & Bjørnstad, O. N., Jul 2025, In: Ecology. 106, 7, e70149.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Larval crowding enhances dengue virus loads in Aedes aegypti, a relationship that might increase transmission in urban environments
Dutra, H. L. C., Marshall, D. J., Comerford, B., McNulty, B. P., Diaz, A. M., Jones, M. J., Mejia, A. J., Bjornstad, O. N. & Mcgraw, E., Sep 2024, In: PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 18, 9, e0012482.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Empirical and model-based evidence for a negligible role of cattle in peste des petits ruminants virus transmission and eradication
Herzog, C. M., Aklilu, F., Sibhatu, D., Shegu, D., Belaineh, R., Mohammed, A. A., Kidane, M., Schulz, C., Willett, B. J., Cleaveland, S., Bailey, D., Peters, A. R., Cattadori, I. M., Hudson, P. J., Asgedom, H., Buza, J., Forza, M. S., Chibssa, T. R., Gebre, S. & Juleff, N. & 3 others, , Dec 2024, In: Communications Biology. 7, 1, 937.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic
Stenseth, N. C., Schlatte, R., Liu, X., Pielke, R., Li, R., Chen, B., Bjørnstad, O. N., Kusnezov, D., Gao, G. F., Fraser, C., Whittington, J. D., Bai, Y., Deng, K., Gong, P., Guan, D., Xiao, Y., Xu, B. & Johnsen, E. B., Mar 7 2023, In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 120, 10, e2220080120.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Reply to Ekström and Ottersen: Real-time access to data during outbreaks is a key to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic
Stenseth, N. C., Schlatte, R., Liu, X., Pielke, R., Chen, B., Bjørnstad, O. N., Kusnezov, D., Gao, G. F., Fraser, C., Whittington, J. D., Gong, P., Guan, D. & Johnsen, E. B., 2023, In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 120, 40, e2312649120.Research output: Contribution to journal › Letter › peer-review
Author Correction: Supply chains create global benefits from improved vaccine accessibility (Nature Communications, (2023), 14, 1, (1569), 10.1038/s41467-023-37075-x)
Wang, D., Bjørnstad, O. N., Lei, T., Sun, Y., Huo, J., Hao, Q., Zeng, Z., Zhu, S., Hallegatte, S., Li, R., Guan, D. & Stenseth, N. C., Dec 2023, In: Nature communications. 14, 1, 5462.Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate › peer-review
Supply chains create global benefits from improved vaccine accessibility
Wang, D., Bjørnstad, O. N., Lei, T., Sun, Y., Huo, J., Hao, Q., Zeng, Z., Zhu, S., Hallegatte, S., Li, R., Guan, D. & Stenseth, N. C., Dec 2023, In: Nature communications. 14, 1, 1569.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics
Yang, F., Servadio, J. L., Le Thanh, N. T., Lam, H. M., Choisy, M., Thai, P. Q., Thao, T. T. N., Vy, N. H. T., Phuong, H. T., Nguyen, T. D., Tam, D. T. H., Hanks, E. M., Vinh, H., Bjornstad, O. N., Van Vinh Chau, N. & Boni, M. F., Nov 7 2023, In: BMJ Global Health. 8, 11, e013054.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
An integrated experimental and mathematical approach to inferring the role of food exploitation and interference interactions in shaping life history
Joncour, B., Nelson, W. A., Pak, D. & Bjørnstad, O. N., May 2022, In: Functional Ecology. 36, 5, p. 1098-1112 15 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Incorporating diapause to predict the interannual dynamics of an important agricultural pest
Pak, D., Carran, S., Biddinger, D., Nelson, B. & Bjørnstad, O. N., Jul 2022, In: Population Ecology. 64, 3, p. 267-279 13 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Assessing the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection with age in China before mass vaccination
Wang, Z., Wu, P., Wang, J., Lourenço, J., Li, B., Rader, B., Laine, M., Miao, H., Wang, L., Song, H., Bharti, N., Brownstein, J. S., Bjornstad, O. N., Dye, C. & Tian, H., Oct 12 2022, In: Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 19, 195, 20220498.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Author Correction: The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics (Nature Methods, (2020), 17, 6, (557-558), 10.1038/s41592-020-0856-2)
Bjørnstad, O. N., Shea, K., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. S., Mar 2021, In: Nature methods. 18, 3, p. 321 1 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate › peer-review
The ecological dynamics of the coronavirus epidemics during transmission from outside sources when R 0 is successfully managed below one
Engen, S., Tian, H., Yang, R., Bjørnstad, O. N., Whittington, J. D. & Stenseth, N. C., Jun 9 2021, In: Royal Society Open Science. 8, 6, 202234.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review