The Meteorology Colloquium hosts Belay Demoz, University of Maryland, Baltimore County.
In atmospheric physics (or meteorology), the critical role of boundary layer moisture profiles in driving and forecasting convection has been well-known. Yet, designing the "perfect" moisture sensor with (enough profit margin) has proven incredibly difficult. The instrument must capture rapid time-space variability, handle a dynamic range spanning three orders of magnitude, and maintain very high accuracy. This measurement gap, combined with high atmospheric variability, has stalled our ability to accurately forecast summertime convective storms for decades. I'm speaking of timing and QPF as well here.
In this talk, I will highlight the fundamental science behind atmospheric moisture measurement, national and international “plea” for moisture profiling, inherent difficulty and lack of a capable network, and share key case studies that demonstrate the immense value of high-quality profiling. We will look at the few research sites attempting to tackle this challenge, examine the resulting bottleneck in meteorological modeling, and review recent and current agency-led efforts to address these problems. Finally, I will share my perspective on a future outlook: without a coordinated moisture profiling network, our forecasting skill for convective events will remain stagnant for the foreseeable future. I do hear, like most, of AI/ML miracles but am still yet to be convinced.