(WTAJ) — The latest US Census Bureau data show people are continuing to leave Central PA.

The bureau estimates the population in WTAJ’s 10 counties (Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Elk, Huntingdon, Jefferson and Somerset) has declined just over 30,000 people since the 2010 Census until the bureau’s estimated population in the middle of 2022.

Centre County’s population has increased in that time span by about 4,400, according to the bureau, but all the other counties saw declines.

Cambria County saw the largest total decrease, while Clearfield County saw the largest percentage decline in estimated people from 2010 to 2022.

Here are the numbers by county, from the 2010 Census (April 1, 2010) to the 2022 estimated population (June 1, 2022):

• Bedford: Approximately 2,300 less, -4.8%
• Blair: Approximately 6,000 less, -4.8%
• Cambria: Approximately 12,200 less, -8.8%
• Cameron: Approximately 600 less, -14%
• Centre: Approximately 4,400 more, +2.8%
• Clearfield: Approximately 3,700 less, -4%
• Elk: Approximately 1,500 less, -4.7%
• Huntingdon: Approximately 2,600 less, -5.9%
• Jefferson: Approximately 1,400 less, -3.1%
• Somerset: Approximately 5,000 less, -6.6%

You can find more information on all counties, cities and even zip codes using the bureau’s QuickFacts feature. You can search in the top left and find population estimates, 2010 and 2020 census numbers, households and different categories for percentages of the total population.

For the counties in decline, the data show the population is aging. In all nine counties, the population of people aged 65 and older is at least 21.5%, whereas it’s about 15% in Centre County.

An older population usually correlates to a higher mortality rate and a lower birth rate, according to Penn State Associate Geology and Demography Professor Chris Fowler.

Fowler also said the pandemic changed people’s moving habits — where some people may have moved out to the countryside or in a less urban environment pre-pandemic, those people were now staying put in their urban or suburban environments.

“It failed to attract people to rural areas,” Fowler said. “In practice, people who moved during the pandemic tended to move out of the largest places. Other than that dynamic, most places were affected primarily by people not moving.”

On the other hand, Centre County continues to reap the benefits of the university. The increase of 4,400 in the County is most likely even higher than that, according to Fowler, because the 2020 Census was taken in April right after all the students were sent home for the pandemic.

Therefore, it’s not just the student body that’s expanding — Fowler said young people, even if they’re not students, are attracted to the area for its economic opportunities.

“You can start a tattoo shop, you can start a bar, you can open a bike shop,” Fowler said.

In terms of speculation for the future, Fowler said it’s possible the overall decrease could start to slow as people’s moving habits trend more towards pre-covid trends.

Plus, as more people move out of the largest cities due to potentially higher costs of living, and as remote jobs become more popular, he thinks Centre County could increase even more with its natural resources and outdoor recreation possibilities. And because Huntingdon County has a similar landscape, he thinks it could reap some of those benefits as well.

“I think Centre County is on the verge of becoming something like an Asheville, North Carolina,” Fowler said. “I think we’re on the verge of becoming a recreation destination.”

Even with the diminishing populations in the other nine counties, the tax burdens on people who are sticking around haven’t changed much, according to Fowler.

He said to think about it using something called the dependence ratio — people who are too old to work or too young to work versus the working population.

“It tells us how many people do we have paying taxes versus how many people do we have that essentially need to have services,” said Fowler, alluding to senior care for the elderly population and public school for the younger population.

Although the ratio is higher in these counties with people aged 65+ taking over a larger portion of the population, Fowler said that doesn’t change residents’ taxes on a county level that much, because tax dollars for senior care are mostly at the federal level, like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

“The local expense is school districts,” Fowler said. “If you have a bunch of old people, they don’t have kids. So as long as you continually downsize your school district, and deal with the ever-shrinking population of young people in school, the tax burden shouldn’t be that big of a deal at the local level.”